This fight has “does not go the distance” written all over it. We cannot be sure how good Negumereanu is. He has feasted on complete bums in the regional scene on his way to a perfect record with nine finishes in nine contests. He appears to have decent striking and grappling but he has never been pushed nor being taken into deep waters.
Safarov is a though dagestani who also entered the UFC unbeaten and lost his first two fights by stoppage, but he had some success in both fights. He is a gritty wrestler with some power and fights hard. He is not gonna fold easily like a lot Negumereanu´s previous opponents. If Safarov takes him late I expect him to be able to outwrestle and grind him out which may lead to a submission which at the current (+900) odds seems a very reasonable value bet. The pick here is fight not to go the distance.